According to Experts.news, the price of aluminum rose in the final trading session of the week following several days of heightened volatility amid risks to supplies from the Middle East, changes in Chinese exports, and expectations of a possible easing of U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum.

On the London Metal Exchange on August 21, the price of aluminum rose by approximately 1.2% to $3,242 per metric ton. Other market indicators throughout the day showed prices ranging from about $3,230 to $3,250 per metric ton.

Over the past month, the metal has risen in price by about 1.8%, and compared to a year ago, aluminum remains nearly 24% more expensive.

Despite the rise during recent trading sessions, the price has fallen significantly from its early June high. At that time, three-month aluminum on the LME climbed to $3,787.5 per metric ton—its highest level in about four years. By mid-August, the price had fallen to approximately $3,270 per metric ton.

The main reason for the June surge was disruptions in supplies from the Middle East amid the conflict with Iran. Before the situation escalated, Gulf states accounted for about 10% of global primary aluminum production. Additional problems arose at plants that relied on gas supplies.

However, China offset a significant portion of the shortfall. In the first half of the year, Chinese exports of aluminum alloys nearly doubled to 238,500 metric tons, while shipments of semi-finished products increased by 18% to 3.2 million metric tons. At the same time, China’s domestic demand remained relatively weak, while primary aluminum production remained at a level close to historic highs.

Chinese companies are currently operating at the limit of the national production capacity cap of 45 million metric tons per year set by Beijing, which restricts the possibility of further rapid production expansion.

Trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada have become another factor affecting the market. According to Reuters, the parties have moved closer to an agreement that could potentially lower U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum from 50% to 25%. Such a decision could once again increase the appeal of Canadian aluminum shipments to the U.S. and reduce the volume of shipments to Europe.

As a result, the aluminum market is caught between two opposing trends: the recovery and growth of Chinese shipments are capping prices, while geopolitical risks, production constraints, and trade barriers are keeping them significantly higher than last year’s levels.

Earlier, the Experts Club think tank published a short video on global aluminum production from 1970 to 2024. According to the think tank’s analysis, in 2024, China produced about 43 million metric tons of primary aluminum, or approximately 60% of the global total. Next were India—about 4.2 million metric tons, Russia—3.8 million metric tons, Canada—3.3 million metric tons, and the UAE—2.7 million metric tons.

Watch a short Experts Club video on global aluminum production — https://youtube.com/shorts/cVVIjdMZL-w?si=dAUR8Purot4TxLsm

aluminum China LME production tariffs

Last modified: August 23, 2026