According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global wheat production in 2025 is forecast to reach around 809.7 million tons, which is 1.3% higher than in 2024.
The growth is expected to be driven by increased yields in Canada, Kazakhstan, China, and India, while southern Europe and North Africa remain at risk of lower production due to drought.
“The outlook for the global wheat market remains positive overall, and global stocks at the end of the season will remain stable despite active exports from the Black Sea region,” according to the October edition of the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.
Top 20 countries in the world by wheat production in 2025 (FAO and USDA estimates)
- China — 138 million tons
- India — 110 million tons
- Russia — 90–92 million tons
- United States — 51 million tons
- France — 34 million tons
- Pakistan — 30 million tons
- Canada — 29 million tons
- Germany — 23 million tons
- Turkey — 20 million tons
- Australia — 18 million tons
- Ukraine — 16–17 million tons
- Argentina — 15 million tons
- Poland — 13 million tons
- Kazakhstan — 12 million tons
- Iran — 12 million tons
- United Kingdom — 11 million tons
- Italy — 8 million tons
- Egypt — 7 million tons
- Romania — 7 million tons
- Spain — 6 million tons
These twenty countries produce over 90% of the world’s wheat.
Despite overall yield growth, global wheat stocks could decline by 1.6% to around 312 million tons by the end of 2025. This is due to increased domestic consumption in Asia and the Middle East, as well as active exports from Russia, Ukraine, and Australia.
Average global wheat prices remain volatile, but FAO analysts predict that they will stabilize relatively if harvests and stocks remain stable.
Despite the war, Ukraine retains its status as one of the largest grain exporters. According to estimates by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in the 2024–2025 marketing year, the country exported about 15 million tons of wheat, supplying it to Egypt, Indonesia, Spain, Turkey, and Tunisia.
Ukraine ranks 11th–12th in the world in wheat production and is among the top five global exporters thanks to its high yields and logistics routes through the Danube and Baltic ports.
A detailed overview of the world’s major wheat producers from 1970 to 2024 can be found in the Experts Club analytical video: Watch on YouTube
Experts Club FAO forecast production Wheat
Last modified: November 3, 2025
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