When compiling the rating, Experts Club considered both economic and political factors that could lead countries to default.
In its new video on YouTube, the Kyiv-based information and analytical center Experts Club published a rating of countries most likely to default on their sovereign debt, writes Lenta.ua.
When compiling the rating, both economic and political factors that could lead countries to default were considered.
As noted by the founder of Experts Club, candidate of economic sciences Maksim Urakin, the current economic situation in the world is cause for concern.
“The global economy is facing unprecedented challenges, and many countries are on the verge of financial collapse. In such conditions, it is extremely important to understand which countries are most at risk of default in order to take appropriate measures,” he stressed.
A sovereign default is a situation where a country cannot meet its debt obligations to creditors. According to Maksim Urakin, default can have catastrophic consequences for the country’s economy and its citizens.
“Default is not just a technical event. It is a tragedy for millions of people who may lose their jobs, their savings, and even access to basic social benefits. That is why we are so closely monitoring the economic situation in different countries,” Urakin added.
The Experts Club 2024 ranking of countries most likely to default includes Argentina, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, and several other countries that are already facing serious economic problems. These countries are characterized by high levels of external debt, economic instability, and political crisis.
Experts Club also identified several countries that are at risk in the medium term. These include Argentina and Venezuela, which are already facing economic instability and high debt levels, as well as Greece and Italy, which are dependent on external creditors.
Experts Club rating Country Current international rating
1. Argentina CCC-
2. Ghana in default
3. Sri Lanka in default
4. Lebanon in default
5. Zambia in default
6. Pakistan CCC
7. Mozambique CCC
8. Ukraine CCC
9. Ethiopia CCC
10. Cameroon CCC+
11. Bolivia CCC+
12. Burkina Faso CCC+
13. Suriname in default
14. Tunisia CCC
15. Egypt B-
16. Nigeria B-
17. El Salvador B-
18. Honduras B-
19. Laos B-
20. Venezuela in default
“We see that countries such as Argentina and Venezuela continue to be on the verge of default due to internal economic instability and external pressure. The situation in Greece and Italy, which are heavily dependent on international loans, is also a cause for concern. The risk of default remains high in these countries,“ Urakin commented.
Particular attention this year is being paid to Lebanon, which, according to the economist, is ”in a state of political and economic crisis, with very high debt relative to GDP.” This makes the country particularly vulnerable to possible default.
Maxim Urakin elaborated on the factors that could lead to default. Among them, he highlighted high external debt relative to GDP, economic instability, and dependence on external financing.
“Countries with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 100% are particularly vulnerable. Examples include Lebanon, Cyprus, and Greece. Economic instability and political crises in countries such as Argentina, Venezuela, and Pakistan also increase the risk of default,” he explained.
Dependence on external financing is another significant factor.
“Countries that depend on external loans to cover budget deficits, such as Spain and Italy, may face difficulties if conditions on international financial markets deteriorate,” Urakin added.
Commenting on the rating, Maksim Urakin noted that the consequences of default for a country and its citizens can often be devastating.
“For government agencies, default means restricted access to international financial markets, a lower credit rating, and the need to implement painful economic reforms. For citizens, it means inflation, devaluation of the national currency, rising unemployment, and a lower standard of living,” the expert explained.
Urakin also stressed that default could lead to increased social unrest and political instability, which could exacerbate the situation in the country. He also assured that Experts Club will continue to closely monitor the global economic situation and provide timely and relevant data to help countries and investors minimize risks and avoid defaults.
You can learn more about defaults and the presented rating from the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel:
You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel at: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Last modified: September 19, 2025
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