Maksym Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, presented an overview of macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of August 2025. The analysis was prepared based on data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the IMF, the World Bank, and leading national statistical services.

Ukraine’s Macroeconomic Indicators

The first eight months of 2025 for Ukraine unfolded under the logic of “managed stability”: the economy remained functional and gradually adapted to wartime restrictions, but without a significant surge in investment. In its review, the NBU noted that in the first half of the year, the economy grew by approximately 1% quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q), meaning that recovery continued but remained moderate.

In January–August 2025, the key signal is not “high growth rates” but the economy’s ability to function under constant risks. We see a gradual recovery in demand and in the service sectors, but the investment component remains weak: businesses often opt for repairs and replacements rather than expansion. This means that growth has not yet translated into modernization. The strategic task is to channel external support and financial stability into long-term projects: energy, logistics, processing, and defense technologies,

— explains Maksym Urakin.

The inflationary backdrop in the summer of 2025 showed a gradual easing. According to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices fell by 0.2% month-over-month in August 2025, while annual inflation (through August 2024) stood at 13.2%. Core inflation was estimated at 11.4% y/y; the consumer price index for January–August (year-over-year) was +6.0%.

Monetary policy during this period remained tight but predictable: the NBU kept the discount rate at 15.5%, emphasizing the importance of consolidating the disinflationary trend and managing expectations. The discussion materials of the NBU Monetary Policy Committee explicitly outline the rationale for maintaining the rate and the role of interest rate policy in reducing pressure on the foreign exchange market and reserves.

Inflation in 2025 is not just a monetary story, but also a supply-side story: weather, harvests, logistics, energy constraints, and the import component. Therefore, the 15.5% rate is more of an “anchor of confidence” than a tool for accelerating growth. The National Bank’s task is to prevent expectations from spiraling out of control and a “flight” into foreign currency, especially when the trade balance is weak. But at the same time, the government must do its part: stimulate production and competition, otherwise inflationary pressure will return in waves,

— emphasizes Maksym Urakin.

Foreign trade remained one of the main channels of macroeconomic risk. According to the State Statistics Service, in January–April 2025, exports of goods amounted to $13.31 billion (93.1% of the same period in 2024), while imports totaled $24.82 billion (112.6%). This reflected a persistent gap between import needs (energy, equipment, critical goods) and export capacity.

International reserves served as a critical buffer against trade tensions and military risks. According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), as of September 1, 2025, reserves stood at $46.03 billion, having increased by 7.0% in August—primarily due to significant inflows from international partners and lower net foreign exchange sales by the NBU.

The debt burden remained high. Public reviews based on Ministry of Finance data noted that as of August 31, 2025, public and state-guaranteed debt amounted to approximately 7.95 trillion UAH (≈ $192.7 billion). Additionally, a specialized resource of the Verkhovna Rada estimated the national debt as of August 31, 2025, at 7.6572 trillion UAH.

Global Economy

In 2025, the global economy followed a trajectory of low but relatively steady growth—with varying speeds across regions and sensitivity to trade risks and financial conditions.

According to the World Economic Outlook update (July 2025), the IMF projected global growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, attributing the revision to improved financial conditions and temporary “front-loading effects” in trade. Meanwhile, the World Bank, in its Global Economic Prospects (June 2025), estimated that the global economy is “settling” at a lower pace—around 2.7% in 2025–2026.

Global growth in 2025 appears to be a balance between resilience and vulnerability: financial conditions have eased slightly, but structural risks—protectionism, energy shocks, and debt—have not gone away. The U.S. is supporting global demand but remains sensitive to interest rates and the consumption cycle; Europe is growing slowly; China is keeping pace through industry and exports, but domestic demand is recovering unevenly. For Ukraine, this means that relying solely on “strong external markets” is not advisable. We need high-value-added niches where we can be competitive even in a world of slow growth,

— notes Maksym Urakin.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that in the second quarter of 2025, U.S. real GDP grew by 3.0% on an annualized basis (advance estimate). Among the key factors, the BEA cited a decline in imports and growth in consumer spending (partially offset by a decline in investment and exports).

Eurozone / EU. According to Eurostat’s preliminary “flash estimate,” seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in the Eurozone and by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in the EU in the second quarter of 2025. This reflected a very modest recovery in economic activity compared to the previous quarter.

China. According to preliminary estimates released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and by 5.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025. Thus, China maintained growth rates above 5% on an annual basis.

India. According to an official press release (PIB), India’s real GDP in the first quarter of the 2025–26 fiscal year (April–June 2025) is estimated at +7.8% year-on-year. This figure confirmed India’s strong performance amid generally moderate global growth.

Turkey. TurkStat reported that Turkey’s GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025 (based on the chain-linked volume index). This signaled an acceleration in annual growth compared to previous quarters, although the structure of demand and foreign trade factors remained important for assessing sustainability.

Conclusion

January–August 2025 was a period of relative macrofinancial stability for Ukraine: inflation slowed to 13.2% y/y in August, reserves rose to $46.03 billion as of September 1, and monetary policy remained tight, with the key policy rate held at 15.5%. At the same time, the trade imbalance and high debt burden continue to pose medium-term risks, which cannot be resolved by “stabilization” alone, but only through structural changes—investment, productivity, processing, and exports with higher value added.

The end of August 2025 reveals an important fact: financial stability in Ukraine is holding, but it does not yet guarantee an economic breakthrough. Reserves and international support are a resource of time that must be converted into production and infrastructure, rather than simply “plugging holes” with imports. If we do not increase export capacity and domestic investment, external shocks will once again become decisive. A window of opportunity exists—but it is measured in years, not months,

—concluded Maksym Urakin.

Source: https://mykyivregion.com.ua/analytics/osnovni-ekonomicni-indikatori-ukrayini-ta-svitu-oglyad

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Last modified: March 21, 2026