Key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy, trends in the review were presented by Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, writes Profbuild.

In 2024, Ukraine’s economy showed signs of recovery despite the ongoing war and unstable geopolitical situation. According to updated data from the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 3.3% in 2024, while nominal GDP amounted to approximately UAH 8.3 trillion. The deflator index was 11.6%.

“GDP growth demonstrates the resilience of the Ukrainian economy. Sectors focused on exports, domestic consumption, and infrastructure restoration have become the engines of growth,” comments Mr. Maksim.

As of January 2025, annual inflation accelerated to 12.9%. Consumer prices in January rose by 1.2% compared to December, reflecting seasonal increases and currency stability.

According to the State Statistics Service, in 2024, exports of goods amounted to $43.8 billion (+13.4%), imports to $67.4 billion (+5.7%), and the negative foreign trade balance to $23.6 billion.

“Despite high imports, primarily of energy and equipment, export activity is growing. Ukraine is strengthening its position in the agricultural and metallurgical markets,” the expert noted.

As of February 1, 2025, according to the Ministry of Finance, Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to $146.7 billion, including $100.1 billion in external debt. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, international reserves reached $45.3 billion, increasing by $400 million in January thanks to inflows from the EU and the IMF.

“The record level of reserves strengthens the stability of the hryvnia and allows the NBU to control currency fluctuations,” the economist emphasizes.

According to the IMF’s January update, global economic growth in 2024 was 3.1%, with a forecast of 3.2% for 2025. Developing countries remain the main drivers, despite global instability.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US economy grew by 2.5% in 2024. In January 2025, inflation was 3.1% year-on-year, and the Fed kept the rate at 5.25-5.5%.

According to revised Eurostat data, eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in 2024, and inflation in January 2025 was 2.8%. Germany, the EU’s largest economy, showed a decline of 0.1%, while Spain and Portugal made a positive contribution to overall growth.

“Geopolitics, high borrowing costs, and unstable demand in the G7 countries continue to hold back recovery. Strong consumer demand is supporting the US economy. But expensive credit is hampering investment activity, especially in real estate.

The Chinese economy needs new stimuli, including tax reforms and support for small businesses, to compensate for the decline in investment in the construction sector,” explained Maxim Urakin.

The Indian economy continues to grow steadily: 8% in 2024, according to preliminary data from the Indian Ministry of Finance. The country is strengthening its position in global supply chains and increasing domestic production.

According to official statistics, China’s GDP grew by 5% in 2024. However, growth in the real estate sector remains weak, and domestic demand is limited, which is holding back expansion potential.

In conclusion, the expert noted that the macroeconomic picture at the beginning of 2025 reflects a difficult but stable situation both in Ukraine and globally. Domestic GDP growth, slowing inflation, and strengthening reserves are positive signals for Ukraine. The global economy, in turn, is showing cautious growth amid continuing challenges.

“For Ukraine, the key priorities remain: ensuring macroeconomic stability, growing exports with high added value, accelerating digital transformation, and implementing structural reforms. This will enable the country to strengthen its position in the international economy as early as 2025,” Maksim Urakin concluded.

The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN.

Experts Club Уракін

Last modified: October 7, 2025