In its new video on YouTube, the Kyiv-based information and analytical center Experts Club published a ranking of countries most likely to default on their sovereign debt. The ranking took into account both economic and political factors that could lead countries to default.

As noted by the founder of Experts Club, Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, the current economic situation in the world is alarming.

“The global economy is facing unprecedented challenges, and many countries are on the verge of financial collapse. In such conditions, it is extremely important to understand which countries are most at risk of default in order to take appropriate measures,” he stressed.

A sovereign default is a situation where a country is unable to meet its debt obligations to creditors. According to Maxim Urakin, default can have catastrophic consequences for a country’s economy and its citizens.

“Default is not just a technical event. It is a tragedy for millions of people who may lose their jobs, their savings, and even access to basic social benefits. That is why we are so closely monitoring the economic situation in different countries,” Urakin added.

In the Experts Club 2024 ranking, Argentina, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, and several other countries that are already facing serious economic problems are among those most likely to default. These countries are characterized by high levels of external debt, economic instability, and political crises.

Experts Club also highlighted several countries that are at risk in the medium term. These include Argentina and Venezuela, which are already facing economic instability and high debt levels, as well as Greece and Italy, which are dependent on external creditors.

“We see that countries such as Argentina and Venezuela continue to be on the verge of default due to internal economic instability and external pressure. The situation in Greece and Italy, which are heavily dependent on international loans, is also cause for concern. The risk of default remains high in these countries,“ Urakin commented.

Special attention this year is being paid to Lebanon, which, according to the economist, is ”in a state of political and economic crisis, with extremely high debt relative to GDP.” This makes the country particularly vulnerable to a possible default.

Maksym Urakin also elaborated on the factors that could lead to default. Among them, he highlighted high external debt relative to GDP, economic instability, and dependence on external financing.

“Countries with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 100% are particularly vulnerable. Examples include Lebanon, Cyprus, and Greece. Economic instability and political crises in countries such as Argentina, Venezuela, and Pakistan also increase the risk of default,” he explained.

Dependence on external financing is another significant factor.

“Countries that depend on external borrowing to cover budget deficits, such as Spain and Italy, may face difficulties if conditions on international financial markets deteriorate,” Urakin added.

Commenting on the rating, Maksim Urakin noted that the consequences of default for a country and its citizens can often be devastating.

“For government agencies, default means restricted access to international financial markets, a downgrade in credit ratings, and the need for painful economic reforms. For citizens, this translates into inflation, devaluation of the national currency, rising unemployment, and a decline in living standards,” the expert explained.

Urakin also stressed that default could lead to increased social discontent and political instability, which could worsen the situation in the country. He also assured that the Experts Club will continue to closely monitor the economic situation in the world and provide timely and relevant data to help countries and investors minimize risks and avoid defaults.

Argentina default expert Experts Club Lebanon Maksim Urakin Sri Lanka

Last modified: September 12, 2025