The main risks to Ukraine’s economy remain the duration of the war and the instability of international aid, writes SEEDS.

This is stated in an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world, based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank, presented by Maksim Urakin, candidate of economic sciences and founder of the Experts Club.

Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine

Maksim Urakin cited data from Ella Libanova, director of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies, who predicts that approximately 50% of citizens will return after the war.

“Demographics are an important factor for economic recovery, but at the same time, the threat of depopulation and labor shortages cannot be ignored. In the medium term, the decline in Ukraine’s demographic growth potential can only be offset by migration,“ emphasized Maksim Urakin.

The expert noted that the main risks to the economy remain the duration of the war and the instability of international aid.

”In the third quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 8.2%. The negative foreign trade balance increased 3.2 times, which is an alarming sign. The national debt has decreased slightly compared to August figures, but by 2024 it may exceed the country’s GDP for the first time, posing significant risks to economic stability,” the economist noted.

Global Economic Outlook

The founder of Experts Club also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth to 2.2% in 2024.

“One of the key reasons for the slowdown in global economic growth is the decline in GDP growth in developed countries. We are seeing the lowest GDP growth in developed countries since the 1980s, with the exception of the periods of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The unprecedented cycle of interest rate hikes by major central banks in recent years has also played a significant role in slowing growth. This rate hike is driven by the need to control inflation, but at the same time, it restricts economic activity,” the expert explains.

According to him, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to rebuild Ukraine after the war and manage public debt.

Reported by SEEDS

Experts Club Уракін

Last modified: August 28, 2025