According to Open4business, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate of wheat production in Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year by 0.6 million metric tons compared to August—to 26 million metric tons—in its September forecast, but at the same time lowered its forecast for Ukrainian exports by 1 million metric tons to 12.5 million metric tons.

According to the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, published by the USDA on September 11, 2026, the upward revision of the harvest forecast is due to record-high yields of Ukrainian wheat as the harvest nears completion. In August, the agency had estimated production at 25.4 million metric tons.

The forecast for domestic consumption of Ukrainian wheat has been raised from 9.2 million metric tons to 9.5 million metric tons, including feed consumption, which has increased from 4.2 million metric tons to 4.5 million metric tons.

At the same time, the USDA significantly raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending wheat stocks—from 4.8 million metric tons in the August forecast to 6.1 million metric tons in September. Imports are expected to total 0.1 million metric tons.

Thus, despite the improved harvest estimate, the additional production is not translating into a corresponding increase in exports and is largely boosting domestic stocks.

The USDA attributes the downward revision of Ukraine’s export estimate—as well as Russia’s—to slow shipment rates in August and logistical challenges in the Black Sea region due to the ongoing war.

Ukraine remains one of the largest suppliers of wheat to the global market. According to the USDA forecast, global wheat trade in the 2026/27 marketing year will total approximately 211.8 million metric tons.

Source: the USDA WASDE-675 report dated September 11, 2026: USDA WASDE September 2026