According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market in the second half of September will be primarily influenced by decisions from major central banks, U.S. consumer demand and inflation data, as well as a large-scale quarterly expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options.

The main event will be the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 15–16. The interest rate decision will be announced on September 16. This meeting is particularly important because, along with the decision, the Fed will publish updated economic forecasts and the so-called “dot plot”—the regulator’s members’ expectations regarding the future trajectory of interest rates.

Anticipation surrounding the meeting has intensified sharply following the release of August inflation data. Consumer prices in the U.S. rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core inflation stood at 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. A day earlier, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a 0.4% monthly increase and a 5.4% annual increase.

Against this backdrop, the market sharply raised its expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed. Throughout September 11, futures markets priced in the probability of such a decision at approximately 82–87%, whereas just a few days before the CPI release, the Reuters consensus forecast among economists had predicted that the rate would remain at 3.50–3.75%.

For cryptocurrencies, a rate hike is traditionally a negative factor: it increases the yield on dollar-denominated assets, raises the cost of borrowed capital, and reduces investors’ risk appetite. However, Bitcoin’s reaction will depend not only on the decision itself but also on the Fed’s comments. If the regulator signals that the September hike is a one-off, the market may react much more calmly than if it were seen as the start of a new tightening cycle.

U.S. retail sales data for August, which will also be released on September 16, will take on added significance ahead of the meeting. In July, this metric declined for the first time in nine months. A strong recovery in consumer spending could bolster the case for higher interest rates, while weak sales might somewhat ease investors’ concerns about further policy tightening. The release date is confirmed by the U.S. Census Bureau. (

On the same day, the BLS will release the August import and export price indices. Typically, this indicator has a much smaller impact on the market than the CPI; however, in the current situation, investors will be closely watching for signs that high prices for energy and imported goods are spilling over into U.S. inflation.

The next key factor will be the Bank of Japan. Its meeting is scheduled for September 17–18. According to a Reuters poll, the central bank is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points—to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years.

For Bitcoin, the Bank of Japan’s decision is significant due to the carry trade mechanism. For many years, investors have borrowed cheap yen and invested them in higher-yielding, riskier assets. Rising interest rates in Japan and a strengthening yen make such strategies less attractive and could lead to a reduction in positions opened with borrowed funds in global markets, including cryptocurrencies. Fears of a unwinding of the yen carry trade have repeatedly been a source of heightened volatility in risky assets.

Another potential source of sharp fluctuations will be September 25, when a major quarterly expiration of cryptocurrency options takes place on Deribit. Based on calculations using exchange open interest as of September 9, approximately $14.4 billion in Bitcoin options and another $1.8 billion in Ethereum options were outstanding as of that date. About 41.5% of the total open interest in Bitcoin options was concentrated in the September expiration.

An expiration date alone does not determine the market’s direction; however, such a large volume of contracts can increase short-term volatility. A study published in the September issue of *Finance Research Letters* also points to statistically significant intraday reversals in Bitcoin during option expiration periods, especially when large positions held by market makers are present.

On September 29, the market will receive the August JOLTS report on U.S. job openings. Following a strong August employment report—which showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.1%—the state of the labor market has become yet another argument for proponents of a more hawkish Fed policy. An unexpectedly high number of job openings could put pressure on Bitcoin again due to rising U.S. bond yields.

But the most important data following the Fed meeting will be released on September 30. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will simultaneously publish the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and data on Americans’ personal income and spending for August. This report specifically includes the PCE price index—the primary inflation measure used by the Fed.

If the PCE shows rising inflationary pressure following the CPI and PPI, expectations for additional rate hikes by the end of the year could intensify. For Bitcoin, such a scenario would mean continued pressure from high bond yields and a strong dollar. Conversely, a weaker PCE could bring back market expectations that the tightening of monetary policy is coming to an end.

The situation is complicated by rising oil prices. On September 11, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds approached 5%—its highest level since 2023—as high oil prices intensified fears of a new wave of inflation.

In addition, on September 10, the European Central Bank raised its key rates by 25 basis points: the deposit rate will be 2.50% starting September 16. The ECB explicitly linked this decision to persistent inflationary pressures, particularly due to the conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices.

Thus, the second half of September is shaping up to be a period of heightened macroeconomic risk for the crypto market. Over the next two weeks, investors will successively see the Fed’s decision, a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan, a major quarterly expiration of crypto options, U.S. labor market data, and the key PCE inflation index.

In the base case scenario, the cost of global liquidity remains the key factor for Bitcoin. If the Fed and the Bank of Japan simultaneously tighten policy, and U.S. inflation remains high, pressure on risk assets may persist. However, if the Fed signals that the rate-hiking cycle is nearing its end, and the PCE shows a slowdown in price growth, the market may find a reason to rebound by the end of September.

The key indicator following each data release will be not only the figure itself but also the reaction of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar: if they continue to rise, it will be more difficult for cryptocurrencies to regain ground, whereas a decline in yields and the dollar’s exchange rate could draw capital back into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other risky assets.

Bitcoin cryptocurrency Ethereum Fed inflation

Last modified: September 11, 2026