According to Experts.news, the structure of Ukraine’s dairy exports has changed significantly over the past year: the share of butter and other milk fats in foreign exchange earnings has more than halved, while dry and condensed milk have become the largest export category, according to an analysis by the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (UDEU).

In August 2025, butter and other milk fats under commodity code 0405 accounted for 36% of the value of Ukraine’s dairy exports, whereas in August 2026, their share fell to 15%. At the same time, the share of dry and condensed milk increased from 24% to 37%, and that of whey from 5% to 11%.

The change in structure occurred gradually. Butter accounted for 36% in August 2025, falling to 25% in October, to 22% in March 2026, and to 15% in August. At the same time, the share of dry and condensed milk rose from 24% to 24%, then to 35% and 37%, respectively. Thus, the shift in the structure of Ukrainian dairy exports occurred primarily between the fall of 2025 and the spring of 2026.

According to the SMPU’s assessment, one of the factors was the situation on the global market for milk fats. Butter prices were under pressure, and the Global Dairy Trade index fell for nine consecutive auctions at the end of 2025. Since the export structure is calculated in value terms, the decline in butter’s share is linked not only to physical shipment volumes but also to changes in global prices.

At the same time, experts cite the growing role of whey as the most notable structural change. Its share of export revenue more than doubled over the year. By August 2026, dry milk, condensed milk, and whey together accounted for 48% of the value of Ukraine’s dairy exports.

The share of cheeses—which are considered higher-value-added products with potentially higher profit margins—remained virtually unchanged, at about 24% in August 2025 and 25% a year later. Thus, the structure of Ukraine’s dairy exports is shifting increasingly toward commodities and raw materials.

This trend is unfolding against the backdrop of a general deterioration in the dairy industry’s trade balance. According to data published by the Ukrainian Dairy Producers Association (SMPU) on September 2, Ukraine exported $176.9 million worth of dairy products in January–August 2026, which is 20.5% less than during the same period last year. At the same time, imports increased by 24.7% to $247.2 million.

In volume terms, butter exports fell by roughly half over the eight-month period, while shipments of dry milk and condensed milk decreased by 7%. At the same time, exports of fermented milk products rose by 28%, milk whey by 1.1%, and cheese by 0.9%.
As a result, Ukraine shifted from a trade surplus in dairy products to a trade deficit. For January–August 2026, the deficit totaled $70.3 million, whereas a year earlier the surplus had reached $24.1 million. The export-to-import ratio fell from 1.12 to 0.72.

On the import side, cheese remains the largest category, although its share in August fell year-over-year from 82.3% to 76.9%. At the same time, the share of imported milk and cream, whey, and butter increased, intensifying competition for Ukrainian processors in the domestic market.

The Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine (SMPU) brings together Ukrainian milk producers and processors and represents the interests of companies in the industry. The organization was founded in 2001.

Original source: analysis by the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine on Ua Dairy

agricultural sector butter exports milk UKRAINE

Last modified: September 8, 2026